US Campaign Against IS A Work In Progress

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 12 September 2014 | 18.46

Key Arab allies of the US have pledged to "do their share" to fight the Islamic State group.

But, strikingly, the country with the biggest border adjacent to Islamic State-conquered territory is not on board.

Turkey's unwillingness to sign up to the meeting's final communique is a major blow given its ability to block access to IS territory for foreign jihadists.

As is its refusal to allow its airbases to be used for airstrikes against IS.

Destroyed vehicles at the site of a triple explosion in a Shia part of Baghdad A triple car bombing rocked a Shia district of Baghdad on Wednesday

Among its concerns are the Turkish nationals being held hostage by IS, seized during the fall of Mosul.

Ankara is also worried airstrikes could strengthen Kurdish rebels in Syria, regarded by the Turks as a terrorist threat.

So John Kerry is off to the Turkish capital on Friday night.

U.S. Secretary of State Kerry looks out over Baghdad from a helicopter Secretary of State John Kerry looks over Baghdad

America is reminding its allies in the region the Islamic State is a bigger threat to them than to the US.

But while that may be true, they would far prefer the United States deals with it than them.

In Washington they know no effort against IS can succeed without cleaving Sunni support away from the organisation in both Iraq and Syria.

In Syria that requires strengthening largely Sunni Syrian opposition groups such as the Free Syrian Army, something the president has studiously avoided for three years.

A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter walks past a mannequin leaning on the wall of the former headquarters of Islamic State militants in Sulaiman Pek A Kurdish peshmerga fighter walks past a dummy at a former IS headquarters

Otherwise US airstrikes will make America appear as the unofficial air force of the reviled Assad regime.

A year ago President Barack Obama's last-minute U-turn away from bombing Mr Assad because of his alleged chemical weapons use led to many Sunni Syrians giving up on more moderate groups and siding with the Islamic State.

It is not clear the more moderate rebels have ever recovered sufficiently to counter the IS threat. 

The Americans have not yet explained how they hope to renew their potential, if indeed they even have a plan for that yet.

President Obama attends ceremony marking 13th anniversary of 9/11 attacks President Obama marks the 13th anniversary of 9/11 at the Pentagon

In Iraq the Obama administration hopes it can turn Sunni tribes away from IS, as they did in the surge against al Qaeda in Iraq.

That will require support from regional allies, a lot of financial incentives and convincing Iraqis US airstrikes aren't solely for the benefit of the country's Shia Muslims. 

It's worth remembering that al Qaeda in Iraq was only crushed through a concerted effort at a time when the US had tens of thousands of troops in the country.

What are the chances of doing the same against IS while there are no American boots on the ground?

Iraq conflict US opinion polls suggest Americans see the Islamic State as a threat

This is not a finalised, definitive strategy. It's a work in progress.

The US knows it must tread and bomb carefully.

Otherwise it will drive more Sunnis to support IS. 

But American public opinion seems to be demanding more than an incremental evolution in policy towards IS.

Opinion polls suggest they see the Islamic State as a threat and they will want to see clear signs it is being destroyed. 

President Obama must still convince Americans and his allies in the region that he has done more than make just another speech.


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