Iran: Western Powers Got What They Came For

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 24 November 2013 | 18.46

Slam dunk for the Yanks? It's a tempting headline, there's some truth in it, but it's too early to write it.

The Western powers got what they came for. 

The interim agreement does not accept that Iran has the 'right' to enrich uranium.  The Iranians have agreed they will not enrich uranium to 20% purity.

Its existing stockpiles enriched to 20% will be blended down. Tehran will not increase its stockpiles of uranium enriched to 3.5% during the six-month duration of the agreement.

The heavy water plutonium plant at Arak will not open next year as planned. Iran will not install any new centrifuges. All the above will be monitored by UN inspectors.

The Iranian team is able to return home claiming its 'right' to enrich has not been expressly challenged, and that, in its view, sanctions have been seen to fail as they have been, albeit partially, relaxed.

Baroness Ashton may have led the talks, but behind them was American diplomacy and the threat of military power. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif hugs French Foreign Minister Fabius after a ceremony at the United Nations in Geneva Iran's Mohammad Javad Zarif hugs French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius

However, the slam dunk headline cannot yet be written because the ink is barely dry on the agreement and it has yet to be put to the test.

If, as the hawks in Congress, the Gulf states, and Israel suspect, the Iranians are simply playing the Americans and intend to build a nuclear weapon clandestinely, this centre piece of President Obama's foreign policy will be in tatters and his reputation along with it.

However, the US/Iran back channel negotiations revealed by the Associated Press suggest that the relative thaw in the icy relationship between the two countries is real.

The thinking behind this interim agreement is to use it as the foundation for a comprehensive agreement within six months. 

Then, if that is achieved, they build to create what has long been called 'The Grand Bargain' - shorthand for detente between Washington DC and Tehran, full recognition of each other, and a welcoming of Iran back into the various organisations of world trade.

That is for 2015. First this agreement has to stick. The foundation has been laid. Now we are to discover if it is built on rock or sand.


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