Will US Climb Down Russia's Ladder On Syria?

Much now depends on what happens when Sergei Lavrov meets John Kerry in Geneva on Thursday.

The Russian Foreign Minister can be expected to outline vague details of how Moscow's plan to disarm Syria of chemical weapons will work.

The US Secretary of State can be expected to press for a clear timeline and structure. They may then both emerge, separately, and give their versions of what has been achieved.

Both men must surely know that the Russian idea will probably never come to fruition, or if it does, will take months to get off the ground.

As discussed on Tuesday, the complexities of inserting hundreds of civilian scientists into a war zone are many.

However, if the White House is looking for a way not to bomb, but also to save face, the Russian construct of a diplomatic ladder to climb down will not be dismissed as the improbable scenario it is.

So, Lavrov will talk about UN committees, possible Russian oversight, potential ceasefires, knowing that will take time. Kerry will make noises about a UN Security Council Resolution nailing down the timeframe and details.

After that it depends how serious the Americans are about the resolution.

If they call Russia's bluff they will insist on a Chapter Seven Resolution (one backed by force), they will want the text to blame Assad for the August 21 chemical attack and they will want to include the words "serious consequences" for failure to comply - as that is the code for war.

The Americans, British and French all know that there is no way the Russians will accept such a resolution.

So if they press it, we will know that in a matter of weeks they will return to the threat of military action.

If they do not press it, if they water down the language, or allow the process to run into the thicket of committees at the UN, we will know that the Americans are taking the Russian ladder and climbing down it.

The White House has its limits. If the Russians overstretch and play too much hardball at the UN, if they publicly embarrass the US, then President Obama, who is keeping the war card in his back pocket, might still turn round the perception that he has presided over a slow-motion diplomatic car crash.