Syria 'Agrees To Hand Over Chemical Weapons'

Weapons Handover Is Unrealistic

Updated: 12:23pm UK, Tuesday 10 September 2013

The Russian proposal for Syria to voluntarily give up its chemical weapons is logistically unrealistic but diplomatically clever.

US Secretary of State John Kerry either blundered into a Russian trap, or disguised an offer as an off-the-cuff remark when he suggested Syria could avoid air strikes by handing over its chemical weapons within a week. Most analysts believe it to be the latter.

Either way, it took about an hour for his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to seize the moment and make his proposal.

A giant smokescreen quickly enveloped the international stage, but behind it you could hear a large ladder being dragged on to give everyone an opportunity to climb down from their current positions, especially President Obama.

The UN quickly embraced the proposal, the British and French gave it a cautious welcome, the Americans said they would look at it, the Syrians did what they will continue to do - they prevaricated.

Everyone spoke with a straight face. They either don't know the complexities behind the reality of the Russian idea, or they felt it better to ignore them until the smoke clears and the route down the ladder becomes apparent.

Who would actually go to Syria and secure the weapons under the auspices of the UN is unclear. It would take hundreds of scientists and others, and it could take months.

Syria is thought to have 1,000 tonnes of chemical weapons spread across dozens of sites.

In the event of full co-operation by the government, which has yet to even admit it has such weapons, the UN would have to beg borrow and steal the experts from a variety of countries prepared to put their top scientists at risk.

It would also have to assemble a support team.

In the meantime Syria would have to sign and ratify the Convention on Chemical Weapons.

When the UN teams arrived they could venture to some of the relatively safe areas under Government control, but getting to sites in contested areas would be problematic.

To put that into English, the UN inspectors would risk being shelled by the Syrian army as it attacked other targets, shot at by rebels for being part of the process which stopped US air strikes, blown up by roadside bombs, and kidnapped by whichever local gang wanted to get themselves into trouble.

This is not the type of job the world's top chemical weapons scientists are best suited for even with a UN security force alongside them.

In a controlled environment the Russian proposal can work. Syria is not a controlled environment.

Anda sedang membaca artikel tentang

Syria 'Agrees To Hand Over Chemical Weapons'

Dengan url

http://badutjayus.blogspot.com/2013/09/syria-agrees-to-hand-over-chemical.html

Anda boleh menyebar luaskannya atau mengcopy paste-nya

Syria 'Agrees To Hand Over Chemical Weapons'

namun jangan lupa untuk meletakkan link

Syria 'Agrees To Hand Over Chemical Weapons'

sebagai sumbernya